The lack of movement from the FOMC translated into another quiet Asian session with the market listening intently to further chatter on the subject of Fed movements for the future with general consensus still remaining that at least one rise is due for the USD base rate before the end of the year, that’s a bit less than the various 3 or 4 rises expected at the beginning of the year and given comments about Brexit and world economy would suggest it remains watch and wait, Euros tested the 1.1200 levels into the early part of the session however, for the most part holding around the 1.1190 levels before finally lightly pushing through as the market moved into the pre-London period. Topside offers likely to be more congestive than strong however, once the market moves through the 1.1220 areas those congestive offers are likely to become a little stronger and through into the 1.1240-60 areas limiting the topside for the moment, however, saying that the markets inability to move yesterday would suggest that there is a general reluctance to trade within the current ranges in any meaningful manner, a push through those levels will likely see stronger offers still remaining into the 1.1300 and possibly on a meagre chance of any solid movement once the market is testing through to the 1.1360 areas and levels not seen since June. Downside bids light through to the 1.1150 areas where the market starts to see some bids appearing on any dips below the level and then those bids likely to continue through to 1.1100 areas, with the market still mired in the past 3 months ranges and needing a push through the 1.1050 area to open up fresh tests to the lows.
The lack of reaction yesterday seems to have continued through to today with the Cable rising only steadily through from the 1.3040 areas to test towards the 1.3060 level into the London session, part of this could be the news that tax receipts are far below expectations for the year so far and likely to miss targets however, given the expectations yesterday for a rate cut one would have expected the market to move back to its previous levels, Topside offers are likely to be a little thin through to the 1.3200 and possible stronger offers although the market has pushed above this level during the month it’s likely to still cause some limited resistance to the market, downside bids through the 1.3000 levels likely to increase into the 1.2950 level with only small stops likely on a break and the market is likely to remain supported through to the 1.2900 areas.
USDJPY dipped from the move into the Tokyo session having opened around the 100.40 areas however the dip was limited through the 100.20 areas and the bids won the day as the market pushed back to the opening levels, Topside offers limited through to the 101.00 levels with possible weak stops on a push through the level and the market struggling through the 101.60 areas with possible offers limited only by commentary expectations by the BoJ/MoF. Downside bids likely to increase on any dip to the 100 levels and through the level into the 99.50 areas, those bids are likely to increase the deeper the market goes as expectations increase for the BoJ/MoF to speak those illustrious words “watching FX market closely”
A very quiet session for the Oz with the market testing to the 0.7650 levels through the session several times however, with a lack of impetus the market seems to be relying on cross trading for movement at the moment, Topside offers likely to continue through the 0.7660 areas and then a little weakness on a move towards the 77 cent level with sentimental offers likely to dominate the area and natural sellers sitting and waiting. Downside bids light through the 76 cent levels and the market is not likely to improve until the 0.7540-30 areas are tested with possible new bids moving in as the market talks of better conditions and less comments from the RBA on the subject.
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