The day of judgement with the FOMC later in the day to come, the market saw limited trading through the session with the market now either set or limited for the decision, trading from the opening around the 1.1150 area and basing on that level through to the late Tokyo session eventually testing lower through the session to the 1.1145 level until the BoJ announcement where the market dipped through into the 1.1120’s as EURJPY USD buying moved in, Topside offers likely to be thin on the ground and unlikely to stand up to any real pressure on a move in either direction, a test through the 1.1220 levels will likely see weak stops forcing the market into the congestive area around the 1.1250 area and larger offers on the approach to the 1.1300 level. Downside bids congested as with the topside and the market moving through the 1.1050 area is likely to see limited stops and a move below the stronger 1.1000 levels will possibly see stronger stops appearing as the market attempts the downside 1.0950 areas.
Opening quietly the market drifted from the mid 1.2990’s down through the 1.2980’s, continuing worries about Brexit, and while the Europeans are talking strongly about what we are not going to be able to do, as they say the door swings both ways and an economy as large as the UK cannot be put out to pasture that easily without the door swinging back. Saying that having dipped to the 1.2980 areas the market bounced back quickly to the 1.3000 levels with EURGBP selling the main mover, once the EURGBP selling was over with though the market renewed its 1.2980 levels and the move into the BoJ announcement saw the market in Cable dropping back as the USD rallied, Topside offers through the 1.3000 areas are likely to be very weak and the move above the 1.3040-50 areas will possibly see weak stops and possible opening stops with light congestion expected around the 1.3100 areas but the topside fairly weak for a good distance, Downside bids through to the 1.2950 levels and while the day is about the FOMC bids through the 1.2900 areas are likely to be a little more formidable than the Brexit vote saying that a push through the 1.2850 areas will likely see stops appearing and a weak situation developing.
So a quiet session from the opening trading around the 101.70 levels, some weak choppiness testing through into the 101.50 levels the market pushed back to the 101.80, the movement into the BoJ announcement became nervous dipping to the 101.20 levels then starting a steady rally to the 102.00 levels into the statement, initially the market reacted with a quick move to the 101.00 areas as the market viewed the announcement as positive with controls aimed at the yield cover however, once you cut through the tinkering it would seem to be smoke and mirrors and the market reacted bouncing off the 101 levels and quickly rising to the 102.40 areas and although slowing the market pushed to the 102.80 levels into the London session. Topside offers likely through the 103.00 areas however, the BoJ is now relying it would seem on the FOMC increasing rates a gamble it would seem or maybe not? A push through the 103.00 levels sees some light congestion around the 103.50 level and then a weak 104.00 level a possibility and stops above that level, Downside bids into the 101.00 levels and likely to be reasonably strong, however, a push through the level will likely see some panicky selling and the congestion to the 100 levels likely to soak up those bids and possible substantial bids.
Moving through the session in a very narrow range saw the market moving around the 0.7550-60 levels into the BoJ statement and the market moved only slightly more, testing to the 0.7565 level and then dropping back to the 0.7535 area as the move higher of USDJPY squeezed the Oz lower and into those lows, Topside offers through the 0.7580-7600 areas with congestion through the level and continuing over the next big figure, whether these will stand up to a strong move higher remains to be seen however a move above the 77 cent level is likely a little stronger and the market having run its course will absorb some further moves, downside bids into the 75 cent levels are light and the market likely to see some weak stops on a push through the 0.7440 areas and the downside to the 72 cent levels becoming vulnerable on a strong USD move.
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